\年末抢跑+双降\预期及债市有效策略的探讨：近期市场反馈及思考7

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the Q4 market may not experience the same "running ahead" trend as in previous years, with a weaker attitude towards institutional buying in the bond market [6][7][8] - The report suggests that the central bank's resumption of bond purchases is primarily aimed at injecting long-term liquidity and replacing financial liabilities at low costs, with potential buying space estimated between 870 billion and 1.15 trillion [9][10] - The probability of interest rate cuts may marginally increase, but remains low, with the decision on reserve requirement ratios depending on the scale of bond purchases [11][12] Group 2 - Current market trading congestion has decreased compared to Q3, but many funds still maintain high durations, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [12] - The report highlights that strategies for Q4 and 2026 may shift from duration strategies to interest rate arbitrage strategies, with an increased focus on asset allocation [15] - Credit bonds have shown strong performance since October, but the report warns that this trend may not be sustainable due to potential regulatory impacts and reduced demand for credit bonds [16][18] Group 3 - The implementation of new accounting standards for insurance in early 2026 may weaken the allocation power of insurance towards perpetual bonds, with a more significant negative impact expected on bank perpetual bonds [20][21] - The new VAT regulations on bond interest income may create pricing discrepancies between new and old financial bonds, affecting investor choices and market dynamics [23][24] - The report discusses the impact of stock market inflows on convertible bonds, suggesting that increased risk appetite may lead to higher demand for convertible bonds, benefiting their prices [27][28] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the need to adjust the investment framework for convertible bonds, shifting from a cyclical price perspective to a focus on the underlying stock's fundamental elasticity [29][30]