Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:09Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International corn market maintains low - level volatile as US corn supply pressure increases with harvest progress, but market expects US corn yield to be lower than USDA's previous forecast; domestic corn prices show a slight rebound in Northeast due to improved storage, farmers' reluctance to sell, and traders' positive actions, while in North China and Huanghuai, market is more stable with slow sales and low - level arrival at deep - processing enterprises. Corn futures prices maintain low - level consolidation, and short - term observation is recommended [2] - Corn starch faces cost support decline due to increased new - season corn supply, and still has market demand squeezed by cassava starch; however, industry operation rate is lower than usual, and with good order fulfillment, enterprise inventory has slightly decreased. Starch futures move in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2135 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 2 yuan, and corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 9 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 927070 lots, down 479 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 213454 lots, down 2229 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 87776 lots, down 1588 lots; for corn starch, net long positions are - 63035 lots [2] - Registered warrants for yellow corn are 66351 lots, and for corn starch are 12453 lots, unchanged [2] - The spread between the main CS and C contracts is 340 yuan/ton [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 434.75 cents/bushel, up 3.75 cents; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn is 2234.31 yuan/ton, up 0.58 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn is 1981.94 yuan/ton, up 0.67 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis of the main corn starch contract is 57 yuan, down 13 yuan; basis of the main corn contract is 99.31 yuan, up 6.58 yuan [2] - Spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 614 yuan, up 52 yuan; spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 291 yuan, down 7 yuan [2] - Spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 234 yuan, up 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US is 427.11 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 22.6 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 7.5 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 44.3 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2] - Corn inventory at southern ports is 60.7 million tons, up 49.3 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 282.7 million tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports is 108 million tons, and starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2] Industrial Situation - Monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and monthly export volume of corn starch is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 64 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - Sample feed corn inventory days are 24.1 days, up 0.06 days; corn starch processing profit in Hebei is 132 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption is 135.32 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Jilin is 114 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operation rate is 68.42%, and starch enterprise operation rate is 58.86%, up 3.24 percentage points [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.32%, up 0.13 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.53%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.1%, down 0.31 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.1%, down 0.31 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of October 30, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 60%, compared with 55% a week ago and 59% in the same period last year [2] - For the week ending October 30, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume is 1668781 tons, compared with 1242451 tons last week and 800209 tons in the same period last year [2]