国债期货日报-20251104

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy operations. It maintains a bullish view on the medium - term, advising to hold long - term positions and wait for buying opportunities on market pullbacks [1][3] Group 3: Market Conditions 1. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, TS and TF continued to adjust, T and TL remained volatile. TL slightly rose, while the others slightly declined. TS2512 was at 102.494 (-0.016), TF2512 at 106.015 (-0.03), T2512 at 108.635 (-0.02), and TL2512 at 116.52 (+0.04) [1][4] 2. Position and Trading Volume - TS contract positions decreased by 347 to 83,306, TF decreased by 645 to 179,279, T increased by 2,275 to 290,431, and TL decreased by 885 to 178,880. TS main contract trading volume decreased by 5,311 to 19,329, TF decreased by 2,173 to 50,509, T increased by 933 to 66,835, and TL decreased by 11,856 to 86,971 [4] 3. Basis - TS basis (CTD) was -0.0397 (+0.009), TF basis (CTD) was -0.0523 (+0.0093), T basis (CTD) was -0.0002 (-0.124), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.2246 (+0.2307) [4] Group 4: Important Information - Lan Fo'an stated that not adding implicit debt should be regarded as an "iron - clad discipline". US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend the Supreme Court's oral argument on the legality of Trump's tariffs, emphasizing it as a "national security matter" [2] Group 5: Market Outlook - The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, but the bond market's gains were limited. Long - term bonds basically maintained a volatile pattern. In the short term, there is a lack of trading hotspots. Attention should be paid to the central bank's monthly liquidity release announcement. If there is no bond purchase for the time being, buying opportunities can be grasped during market pullbacks [3] Group 6: Other Data - The funds were loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.75 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 35.78 billion yuan [1]