氧化铝、电解铝11月报：原料价格承压，供应过剩格局难改，氧化铝涨幅有限，宏观环境利好，电解铝或偏强震荡-20251104

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina is expected to fluctuate mainly in November. The supply surplus pattern will continue, with cost support potentially weakening, but there are expectations of production cuts later [7]. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in November and still has room for an upward trend. Although downstream demand growth is limited and consumption overdraft is obvious, the macro - positive factors will continue [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoints and Strategies - Alumina: The supply of bauxite in China is sufficient, and the alumina supply surplus pattern will continue. The demand is at a high level, but the inventory is at a four - year high, which will continuously pressure prices. The cost support may weaken marginally, and it may oscillate in November [7]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The supply is strong, with the main production areas' operating rates remaining high and limited subsequent increments. The downstream demand is weak overall, but the macro - positive factors from the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction will continue, and it may oscillate strongly in November [7]. 02 Bauxite Supply Situation Review and Outlook - Domestic production: In September, China's bauxite production was 551900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, at a medium - low level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi and Guizhou decreased month - on - month, while that in Henan increased [10]. - Imports: From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.27%. The impact of the rainy season has weakened, and subsequent imports may rebound [14]. - Shipments by country: In September, shipments from Australia to China decreased month - on - month, while those from Guinea increased, reaching 6 million tons but a year - on - year decrease of 29.22%. As of October 24, port inventory was 27.7177 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [19]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Situation Review and Outlook - Cost and profit: In September, the production cost decreased to 2808.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit fell to about 289.8 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rates in Guangxi, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Guizhou increased overall [23][24]. - Production volume: In September, global metallurgical alumina production was 12.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.95%, and China's was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69%, both at the highest levels in the past six years [29]. - Net exports: From January to September, China maintained a net export status. In September, the net import volume was - 186400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90%, reaching the lowest level in the past six years [34]. - Inventory: As of October 31, China's alumina inventory was 4.732 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.5%, and the inventory continued to accumulate [39]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation Review and Outlook - Cost and profit: In September, the electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased to 15918 yuan/ton, and the production profit rose to 4849 yuan/ton [44]. - Production volume: In September, global electrolytic aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%, and China's was 3.6796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%, at a high and the highest level in the past six years respectively [49]. - Imports: In October, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum decreased. In September, the import volume was 517400 tons, at the highest level in the past six years [54]. - Inventory: In September, the molten aluminum ratio rose to 73.71%. As of October 31, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 605000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past six years. LME aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline and was at the lowest level in the past six years [59][63]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - Downstream sectors' operating rates: In September, the aluminum profile operating rate dropped to 41.9% and will remain weak; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate rose to 73.99% [68][69]. - Exports: From January to September, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 652200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.82%; that of aluminum plates and strips was 2.2913 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.67%; that of aluminum foils was 1.0141 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.57%; and that of aluminum cables was 198200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.28% [73][78]. - Real estate: From January to September, the new construction area was 45400 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the construction area was 648600 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; and the completion area was 31100 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%, with the decline rates of new construction and completion narrowing [83][88]. - Automobiles: From January to September, China's cumulative automobile production was 24.3022 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.23%. In September, the production was 3.2758 million vehicles, the sales were 3.2264 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio dropped to 0.9849 [91]. - New energy vehicles: From January to September, the cumulative production was 11.2201 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.71%. In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio dropped to 0.992 [96]. - Household appliances: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of the production and sales of three major white - goods all narrowed slightly. The cumulative production of refrigerators increased by 3.05%, air conditioners by 4.74%, and washing machines by 9.61%. The cumulative sales of refrigerators increased by 3.19%, air conditioners by 5.56%, and washing machines by 8.87% [101]. - Photovoltaic: In September, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1126.51GW, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the cumulative newly - added installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%, with the year - on - year growth rate narrowing significantly [106].