全球股市立体投资策略周报 10 月第 4 期：财报季全球科技资产表现分化-20251104

Market Performance - Global indices mostly rose last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.6%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.9% [7][31] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance with a gain of 6.3%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, down by 1.5% [7][31] - In emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 2.7%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst performer, down by 1.0% [7][31] Trading Sentiment - Global trading volume generally improved, with North American holdings index reaching a historical high [21] - The trading volume for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index experiencing declines [21][27] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved but remained at a historical low, while sentiment in the US was at a historical high [21][28] Fundamental Analysis - Earnings expectations for US tech and consumer discretionary sectors were significantly revised upwards during the earnings season [63] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was adjusted from 269 to 270, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision of +2.4 [63][64] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was revised from 2062 to 2066, with the materials sector seeing the largest increase [63][64] Economic Outlook - Major market sentiment indicators showed a rebound, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and improved earnings from tech giants [7][63] - The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, supported by stable ECB rates and a temporary easing of political tensions in France [7][63] - The Chinese Economic Surprise Index rose, bolstered by positive Q3 data and favorable policies [7][63] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but there were hawkish signals regarding future cuts [52] - As of October 31, market expectations indicated the Fed would cut rates 0.68 times by year-end, a decrease from the previous week [52][53] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong seeing substantial inflows through the Stock Connect program [58][62]