SRCB(SH:601825) Guohai Securities·2025-11-04 09:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.78% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a quarterly growth of 1.15% in Q3. Revenue has decreased by 3.18% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [5] - The bank's loan and advance total increased by 1.60% compared to the end of the previous year, with a 4.17% increase in corporate loans, while personal loans decreased by 1.89% [5] - Asset quality has improved marginally, with a non-performing loan ratio remaining low at 0.97%, and the provision coverage ratio increased by 3.55 percentage points to 340.10% [5] - The report forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 264.80 billion, 276.00 billion, and 293.31 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.60%, 4.23%, and 6.27% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 124.84 billion, 126.93 billion, and 132.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.59%, 1.68%, and 4.24% respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 3.18%, a slight improvement from the 3.4% decline in the first half of the year. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.78% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a 1.15% increase [5] - Interest income decreased by 5.05% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year due to effective cost management [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total loans and advances increased by 1.60% compared to the end of the previous year, with corporate loans up by 4.17% and personal loans down by 1.89% [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.97%, and the proportion of special mention loans increased by 4 basis points to 1.81% [5] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 340.10%, reversing a declining trend observed since September 2023 [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 264.80 billion, 276.00 billion, and 293.31 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -0.60%, 4.23%, and 6.27% [6] - The projected net profit for the same period is 124.84 billion, 126.93 billion, and 132.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.59%, 1.68%, and 4.24% [6]