新能源：硅-光伏专题：收储政策驱动下多晶硅行业供需与估值策略报告-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The polysilicon industry is facing a situation where the high profits in the silicon material segment are extremely disconnected from the cash - flow pressure in the downstream segments, and there is a continuous game between high inventory and market - expected capital. The current market quotation is over - valued in the short term, and the profitability of the mid - and downstream industries is not optimistic [4][62]. - The short - term game between downstream companies' cash - flow preservation and upstream companies' price - holding and sales - hoarding continues. Downstream companies prioritize cash flow, shrink capital expenditures, and most companies postpone expansion plans. Upstream silicon material companies rely on policy expectations to hold prices [4][6][58]. - Future supply - side reduction requires policy support to eliminate production capacity and the cooperation of downstream demand. The probability of the establishment of a debt - bearing platform company by the end of the year is increasing, but it will take time to realize the supply - side production capacity reduction [4]. - The valuation of polysilicon is high in the short term, with significant differences. In the long term, companies with industrial chain integration and cost - control capabilities will have higher valuation premiums [59][60][61]. Summary by Directory Policy Aspect: Strengthened Expectation of Storage Policy Implementation, Likely to be Completed This Year - Since the second half of this year, "anti - involution" policy signals have been intensively released, and the market's expectation for the clearance and supply - side reform of the polysilicon industry has increased. High - level meetings have emphasized the construction of a unified market and the withdrawal of backward production capacity [13]. - In September, new energy consumption - related policies were introduced to improve terminal demand, but the full solution of terminal demand limitations still takes time, and the installation expectations for next year are not optimistic [18]. - By October, progress was made in the establishment of a platform company for production capacity storage, but the actual implementation of production capacity reduction still requires policy and practical support [14]. Fundamental Aspect: Disconnection between Upstream and Downstream, and Regional Differentiation Industrial Chain Internal: Severe Mismatch between Silicon Material and Downstream Demand, High Inventory as the Core Problem - There is an extreme gap between the high profits in the silicon material segment and the cash - flow pressure in the downstream segments. Silicon material companies maintain high profit margins, while downstream companies such as silicon wafer and battery cell manufacturers face losses [19][24]. - The high inventory of over 400,000 tons in the silicon material segment is the core problem, and there is a slight accumulation trend. The production schedule of polysilicon in October increased by 6% month - on - month, while the component production schedule decreased by 5% month - on - month [19]. - The digestion of high inventory requires a boost in terminal demand, but the future growth rate of domestic terminal installations cannot reach previous levels, and the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the short term is low [27][28]. Regional Supply and Demand: Profit - Driven Operation, Significant Structural Differentiation - In the silicon material segment, leading companies maintain high profits, but production is restricted by policies. In November, the production of silicon material in Inner Mongolia will decrease, but there may be complementary production capacity from other regions [35][40]. - Downstream segments are generally in a loss state, relying on OEM to survive. Component companies face cost pressure from raw materials and weak terminal demand [39]. - In different regions, Inner Mongolia's production is expected to decline due to high electricity prices and policy restrictions; Xinjiang's production is stable due to low - cost energy advantages; the southwest region faces challenges such as rising electricity prices during the dry season and contradictions between production capacity planning and short - term production [40][43][53]. Capital Operation: Differentiation between Cash - Flow Orientation and Capital Layout - In the short term, there is a continuous game between downstream companies' cash - flow preservation and upstream companies' price - holding and sales - hoarding. Downstream companies prioritize cash flow, shrink capital expenditures, and slow down expansion plans. Upstream silicon material companies control sales volume to maintain prices [58]. Industry Valuation: Significant Short - Term Differences, Long - Term Return to Supply - Demand Balance Short - Term Valuation: Game between Policy and Fundamentals, Significant Differences - Silicon material companies' high valuations rely on policy expectations. If the storage policy fails to meet expectations or downstream demand weakens, there is a risk of valuation correction. - Downstream companies' low valuations reflect their loss pressure. If the silicon material price returns to the fundamental level, their profitability and valuations may recover [59]. Long - Term Valuation: Valuation Mainline: Integration and Cost - Control Capability - In the long run, companies with industrial chain integration and cost - control capabilities, especially those with high green - electricity usage ratios and regional cost advantages, will have higher profit stability and valuation premiums [61].