山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.50%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.33% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the safe - haven aspect, Sino - US talks led to a reduction in trade war risks, and the weakening of US employment and moderate inflation slowed down the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, with the US canceling the so - called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods and continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. In terms of the monetary attribute, the Fed's interest rate cut path has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. The market expects a 70% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index fluctuated downward, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [1][2] - Data Summary: - International Prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4193.10 per ounce, up 4.48% from the previous day and 4.91% from the previous week; London gold was at $4025.25 per ounce, up 0.34% from the previous day and 1.37% from the previous week [2]. - Domestic Prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 915.58 yuan per gram, down 0.76% from the previous day but up 1.58% from the previous week; Gold T + D closed at 915.68 yuan per gram, down 0.49% from the previous day and up 2.12% from the previous week [2]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots; Shanghai Gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.47% from the previous day and 17.80% from the previous week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 0.33% from the previous day and 1.56% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 1.32% from the previous week [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5] - Data Summary: - International Prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $50.97 per ounce, up 5.64% from the previous day and 8.84% from the previous week; London silver was at $48.78 per ounce, down 0.38% from the previous day and up 2.98% from the previous week [5]. - Domestic Prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11,238 yuan per kilogram, down 1.89% from the previous day and up 1.71% from the previous week; Silver T + D closed at 11,242 yuan per kilogram, down 1.75% from the previous day and up 2.24% from the previous week [5]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots; Shanghai Silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.67% from the previous day and 20.13% from the previous week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 1.87% from the previous day and increased by 14.87% from the previous week. The total explicit silver inventory was 41,153 tons, down 0.01% from the previous day and 0.76% from the previous week [5]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve Indicators: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.00%, the discount rate was 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate was 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets were $6,637.178 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week [7]. - Macroeconomic Indicators: M2 year - on - year growth was 4.49%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.39%, the US dollar index was 99.87, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.38, etc [7]. - Inflation Indicators: CPI year - on - year was 3.00%, and CPI month - on - month was 0.30% [9]. - Other Indicators: The geopolitical risk index was 285.03, the VIX index was 17.17, the CRB commodity index was 306.09, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1188 [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 was about 70.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges for subsequent meetings is also provided in the report [11].