银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without obvious improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3337, down 10 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3492, down 5; JD09 closed at 3859, down 2 [2]. - Cross - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was - 155, down 5; the 05 - 09 spread was - 367, down 3; the 09 - 01 spread was 522, up 8 [2]. - Price Ratios: The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybean meal were mostly stable, with only minor changes in a few cases [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2234, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3090, unchanged; the price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.49, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per laying hen was - 0.61 yuan/feather, down 0.36 from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Production and Sales Areas Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, unchanged. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable [4]. - Laying - hen Inventory: In October, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, down 0.01 billion from the previous month, and up 5.5% year - on - year. It is estimated that the inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 will be 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - Chick - hatching Volume: In October, the monthly chick - hatching volume of sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - Culled Chicken Volume and Age: In the week of October 31, the national culled chicken volume was 20.53 million, up 11% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 494 days, down 5 days from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7658 tons, up 2.1% from the previous week [6]. - Profit and Inventory: As of October 31, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.2 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 4.82 yuan/feather, up 1.42 yuan/feather from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links remained unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without obvious improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment have led to a slight rebound in spot prices [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8].