双焦月报：关注供给侧扰动，双焦偏强震荡-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and due to factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses, hot metal production has been continuously decreasing. However, coking coal and coke are prone to rising and difficult to fall under the tight supply - side situation (year - end safety inspections, mine accidents, stricter over - production inspections, and Mongolian imports), but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward space. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Overall Situation - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and factors like environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. The tight supply - side situation makes coking coal and coke prone to rising, but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward movement. The overall view is that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.1.2 Coke - Core: The second round of coke price increase has been implemented, but most coking enterprises are in the red. Hot metal production is decreasing, coke production is falling, and inventory pressure is limited. - Logic: End - of - year demand - side policies may be limited, and the coal supply side dominates the market. Coking coal and coke are likely to rise but are restricted by weak finished - steel demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Spot and Futures: Spot prices have increased due to coking coal cost pressure, with two rounds of price increases in October. The main futures contract rose 9.49%. The coke term structure shows a Contango structure, and the curve's center of gravity has shifted upward. - Price Spread: The coke futures monthly spread is basically flat. - Supply: Neutral. Independent coking enterprises have reduced production due to cost pressure, while steel mill coke production has increased slightly. Coke production weakened slightly in October. - Demand: Bearish. Direct demand has weakened as steel mills' environmental protection restrictions and profit losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. There is a price game between steel mills and coking enterprises. In terms of steel terminal demand, the real estate and infrastructure sectors in the building materials segment are weak, while the manufacturing and export sectors in the coil segment have some growth. - Inventory: Bullish. The overall coke inventory is at a low level. Steel mills purchase on demand, and independent coking enterprises' inventory is low. - Strategy: Consider buying on dips, with the coke 01 contract in the range of [1650 - 1820] [15]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - Core Logic: The supply of coking coal is tight, with strict year - end safety inspections and over - production control. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and inventory is at a low level. - Spot and Futures: Spot prices have risen due to continuous supply - side disturbances. The main futures contract rose 14.21%. The coking coal Contango curve's center of gravity has shifted upward and has flattened. - Price Spread: The coking coal futures monthly spread has narrowed. - Supply: Bullish. Mine accidents, safety inspections, stricter over - production checks, and Mongolian domestic political contradictions have led to a tight supply of coking coal. - Demand: Bullish. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to purchase due to rising coal prices. - Inventory: Neutral. The overall inventory is at a low level. Steel mills and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and mine inventory has been continuously decreasing. - Strategy: Consider buying on dips, with the coking coal 01 contract in the range of [1150 - 1320] [17]. 3.2 Hot Events - In October, policy and supply - side disturbances continuously pushed up coal prices. For example, on October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on regulating market price behavior, and a coal mine accident occurred in Hunan. On October 16, the central safety production inspection and patrol started. On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". On October 29, there were reports of tightened coal production restrictions at the end of the year and the shutdown of a Mongolian coal washing plant. These events had an impact on the futures prices of coking coal and coke [20]. 3.3 Steel Terminal Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - In September, except for the narrowing of the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area, the cumulative year - on - year data of investment, available funds, and sales area in the real estate sector continued to weaken. In most cities, housing prices declined [23]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - From January to September this year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, accounting for about 84% of the annual total, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 billion yuan. The use of special bonds, such as for debt reduction and land reserve projects, may limit their promotion of infrastructure [26]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - Driven by policies, the added value of the manufacturing industry has increased year - on - year, especially in equipment, automobiles, and ships. The strong growth in the downstream manufacturing industry has increased the demand for coils, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong [29]. 3.3.4 Export - From January to September, China exported 87.955 million tons of finished steel, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. Steel exports have been strong this year, with exports shifting from coils to wire rods and billets due to anti - dumping measures and market changes [31]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Price Increase - In October, coke prices increased twice due to the firm coking coal prices and coking enterprise losses. There was a fierce price game between steel mills and coking enterprises, and automobile freight rates decreased slightly [35]. 3.4.2 Futures Price - The coke 01 contract closed at 1777 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 9.49%. Supply - side disturbances such as mine accidents and safety inspections pushed up the price. The basis decreased as the futures price rose more than the spot price [40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coke price curve has shifted upward, and the slope of the Contango curve has become steeper. The monthly spread is basically flat [42][45]. 3.4.4 Supply - The daily production of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, while that of steel mills increased slightly. The total daily production of coke increased slightly. Due to cost pressure, coking enterprises' production is limited, and they want to start the third - round price increase. The supply - demand gap has decreased as hot metal production decreased [48]. 3.4.5 Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased in October, and hot metal production decreased for five consecutive weeks. Weak demand for finished steel, high coal and iron ore prices, and environmental protection policies led to reduced hot metal production [56]. 3.4.6 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills has been decreasing since August, and more than half of the steel mills are in the red. Coking enterprises have been mostly losing money. The weak demand for finished steel and tight coking coal supply have put pressure on the profits of steel mills and coking enterprises, leading to a price game [58]. 3.4.7 Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises' inventory is low, steel mills purchase on demand, and port inventory increased slightly [60]. 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Price - Coking coal prices have strengthened due to supply - side disturbances and strong downstream restocking demand. The prices of some coking coal varieties have increased significantly [70]. 3.5.2 Futures Price - The coking coal 01 contract closed at 1286 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 14.21%. Supply - side factors pushed up the price, but the weak demand for finished steel limits the upward space. The basis decreased as the futures price rose [72]. 3.5.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coking coal Contango curve has shifted upward and flattened. The monthly spread has narrowed [74][77]. 3.5.4 Supply - The production of 523 sample mines is tight, and the daily production of raw coal and clean coal is at a low level. The operating rate of 314 coal washing plants decreased slightly, and the daily production of clean coal decreased. In September, coking coal imports increased year - on - year, but Mongolian imports were affected by domestic political contradictions [80][82][84]. 3.5.5 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly but is still at a low level compared to the same period last year. Mine inventory decreased, while steel mill and coking enterprise inventory increased due to strong restocking意愿 [86].