现实逻辑主导，钢矿偏弱运行：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.42%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing open interest. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate was running weakly with a daily decline of 1.03%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and open interest. At present, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot-rolled coils remains unchanged, and the concerns about demand have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, hot-rolled coils are under pressure to weaken, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.71%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing open interest. At present, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken, and the weak fundamentals of iron ore remain unchanged. Under the dominance of the real logic, the high-valued iron ore price is prone to decline under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In October, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.7%, remaining in the expansion range. Although the logistics business volume index had a slight correction, the overall demand maintained an expansion trend. Industrial logistics demand represented by bulk commodities declined to some extent, while consumer logistics demand showed an accelerating growth trend [6]. - Affected by the decline in output and weak demand, the manufacturing activity in the United States shrank for the eighth consecutive month in October. The manufacturing index of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) dropped 0.4 to 48.7. The output and employment indicators also declined [7]. - On October 31, 2025, Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry issued an announcement, making a positive final anti-dumping ruling on galvanized sheets originating from or imported from China, South Korea, and Vietnam. Anti-dumping duties will be levied on the涉案 products from these countries at the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) price. The anti-dumping duty rate for China is 0% - 26.80% [8]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Tianjin price was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price was 3,234 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. For hot-rolled coil plate, the Shanghai price was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,338 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 110 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,010 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 783 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 817 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars/ton; the ocean freight from Brazil was 23.11 US dollars/ton, down 0.21 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 105.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.18 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 105.85 US dollars/ton, down 1.55 US dollars/ton [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,044 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The highest price was 3,084 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,040 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,016,465 lots, a decrease of 134,111 lots; the open interest was 1,966,544 lots, an increase of 47,527 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil plate futures active contract was 3,265 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The highest price was 3,299 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,260 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 375,271 lots, a decrease of 137,680 lots; the open interest was 1,396,130 lots, a decrease of 26,705 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The highest price was 784.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 773.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 276,598 lots, a decrease of 130,128 lots; the open interest was 547,754 lots, an increase of 12,824 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report includes charts on steel inventories (rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil plate inventory), iron ore inventories (national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory), steel mill production situation (blast furnace operating rate, electric furnace operating rate, steel mill profitability), etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [15][20][29] 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to rise. The production of construction steel mills is active, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 5.52 tons week-on-week, reaching a relatively high level this year. The inventory is high, and the pressure has increased. At the same time, the demand for rebar has improved seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 6.17 tons week-on-week, and the high-frequency daily trading volume has also increased. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the current situation of increasing supply and demand, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil plate: The supply-demand pattern has not changed much. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 1.10 tons week-on-week, remaining at a high level this year. The inventory reduction at a high level is limited, and the supply pressure is still relatively large, continuing to put pressure on the price of hot-rolled coils. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coils is acceptable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing week-on-week and remaining at a high level in the same period. However, the high-frequency trading volume is relatively weak, and the fundamentals of the main downstream cold-rolled products have not improved, so the demand concerns have not subsided. The relatively positive factor is the marginal improvement in external demand, but it needs to be tracked after the price rebounds. At present, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot-rolled coils remains unchanged, and the demand concerns have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, hot-rolled coils are under pressure to weaken, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [37]. - Iron ore: The supply-demand pattern continues to weaken. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal demand for iron ore continues to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore decreased week-on-week, and the decline continued to expand. The demand is clearly in a weakening trend. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production restriction disturbances, the demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decline, and the weak demand is likely to drag down the iron ore price. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined, but both are at relatively high levels. Coupled with the increase in domestic iron ore supply, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased. In general, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken. The weak fundamentals of iron ore remain unchanged. Under the dominance of the real logic, the high-valued iron ore price is prone to decline under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [38].