供应压力缓解，锌价重心上抬

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After major macro - events are settled, the market shifts to fundamentals. In November, both supply and demand are weak. The reduction in processing fees strengthens cost support. The decline in refined zinc output and zinc ingot exports alleviate the high - supply pressure. Although demand is marginally weakening, it still has resilience. The pattern of low inventory and strong structure of LME zinc is difficult to reverse in the short term, which will continuously support the zinc market. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move up in November [3][70]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In October, the main contract of SHFE zinc generally continued to oscillate in a low - level range. Macro and micro factors were intertwined. With the settlement of major macro - events at the end of the month, market sentiment improved, driving up risky assets such as non - ferrous metals. The contradiction in the fundamentals focused on the change of zinc ingot exports. The SHFE - LME ratio dropped to an extreme value, strengthening the expectation of zinc ingot exports, but the export efficiency was low, making the SHFE zinc trend stalemate. By the end of the month, the futures price closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.43%. - LME zinc's oscillation center continued to move up. In the middle of the month, it was suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar. After a phased adjustment, it found support near the 40 - day moving average. At the end of the month, the risk of short - squeeze overseas intensified, and the LME 0 - 3 spot premium refreshed the high since 1997. LME zinc turned strong again, breaking through $3,000/ton and finally closing at $3,050/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.16% [8]. 3.2 Macro - aspect 3.2.1 US Aspect - The US economic growth rate declined. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5. The employment market was weak, and inflation data was lower than expected. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, in line with expectations, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. But Powell's post - meeting statement was hawkish, and the market significantly lowered the expectation of continuous interest - rate cuts in December. - At the end of October, the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents led to a phased agreement, which eased the trade situation and was beneficial to market risk appetite. However, the US government shutdown, data delays, and the hawkish attitude towards interest - rate cuts put pressure on risky assets [11][12]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Aspect - The Eurozone economy recovered, but the sustainability of the recovery was to be observed. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.0. The GDP growth rate rebounded quarter - on - quarter but slowed year - on - year. The employment market was stable, and inflation declined slightly. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time in October and emphasized a data - dependent policy path. The economic recovery and inflation differences among countries increased the policy divergence within the ECB, and it was expected to be more cautious than the Fed [13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Aspect - The domestic economic downward pressure increased. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter slowed down, and economic data in September was further differentiated. The export and production sectors were strong, while consumption and investment were weak. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee and the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" construction opinions injected long - term confidence into the market. Although the economic recovery slowed down, the probability of achieving the annual GDP growth target was high, and mild policies were still expected [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply Situation - Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Recovery: From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of global zinc concentrates was 8.297 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Overseas zinc mines maintained stable production, and it was expected that the overseas zinc concentrate increment would be about 550,000 tons for the whole year. In China, the zinc concentrate output in September was 314,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. It was expected to continue to decline in November [23][26]. - Adjustment of Domestic and Overseas Processing Fees and High - level Zinc Ore Imports: In November, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 650 yuan/ton. The average import ore processing fee was $105.54/dry ton, with a month - on - month increase of $18.03/dry ton. The import of zinc concentrates remained at a high level, but the growth space was limited [29][30]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply Situation - Increased Production Expectation of Overseas Refineries and High - level Domestic Supply: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.138 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.03%. Domestic production was stable, and new capacities gradually released output, while overseas refineries contributed to the main reduction. In the fourth quarter, some overseas refineries had the expectation of resuming and increasing production, but the willingness to significantly increase production was still insufficient [33][34]. - High - level Monthly Output of Refined Zinc from January to November and Increased Expectation of Zinc Ingot Exports: In October, the refined zinc output was 617,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.85% and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It was expected to decrease by 0.94% to 611,400 tons in November. The import of refined zinc was expected to have no increment, while the export window opened intermittently, and the export volume was expected to increase significantly [39][40]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand Situation - Marginal Recovery of Terminal Consumption in Europe and the US with Uncertain Sustainability: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc consumption was 9.0216 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2%. Overseas consumption increased by 1.35% year - on - year, and domestic consumption increased by 2.78% year - on - year. The supply surplus in the global zinc market expanded [47]. - Weak Performance of Initial - stage Enterprises'开工率 and Resilience of Galvanized Exports: In October, the开工率 of initial - stage galvanizing and zinc oxide enterprises was at a relatively low level, and that of die - casting alloy enterprises was at a neutral level. It was expected to decline in November. The export of galvanized sheets in September was 1.2262 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.73% and a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. It was expected to decline in October [52][53][54]. - Weak Traditional Consumption and Differentiated Emerging Consumption: In traditional consumption, the infrastructure investment growth rate declined, and the real estate sector continued to be weak. In the automotive sector, production and sales were good. In the white - goods sector, the air - conditioner market faced challenges, and the production plan for November was adjusted downward. In the emerging consumption sector, the decline in the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity narrowed, and the wind power sector was expected to have positive growth in the fourth quarter [55][61][62]. 3.3.4 Differentiated Domestic and Overseas Inventories - The LME inventory accelerated to decline since mid - July. In October, the LME 0 - 3 spot premium soared, and the inventory decreased to 35,300 tons by the end of the month. It was expected to stabilize and slightly rebound but remain at a low level. - The domestic social zinc ingot inventory was at a high level in October, reaching 161,500 tons. It was expected to remain high, but if the zinc ingot export efficiency improved, the inventory pressure might be relieved [65]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Sino - US phased agreement and the Fed's October interest - rate cut were in line with expectations, but the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut increased. The domestic economic recovery slowed down, and mild policies were expected. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" provided long - term confidence. - Supply - side: Northern mines entered the seasonal production off - season, and the processing fees decreased, strengthening cost support. The refined zinc supply was expected to decrease slightly, and the supply - side pressure was marginally relieved. - Demand - side: Terminal consumption was flat, with pressure on infrastructure and real estate. The automotive sector continued to improve, and the consumption in the photovoltaic and wind - power fields was strong. In November, the consumption entered the off - season transition period, and the initial - stage enterprises'开工率 was expected to decline moderately. - Overall: In November, both supply and demand were weak. The reduction in processing fees and zinc ingot exports alleviated the supply pressure, and the demand had resilience. The low - inventory and strong - structure pattern of LME zinc would support the zinc market, and the zinc price center was expected to move up [70].