政策需求双轮驱动，绿色燃料的产业化元年

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The green liquid fuel industry is entering a phase of industrialization driven by policy demands and technological advancements, with significant growth potential in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green methanol, and renewable ammonia [17][12] - The demand for green fuels is expected to rise significantly, particularly in the aviation and shipping sectors, as regulatory frameworks tighten and companies seek to meet net-zero emissions targets by 2050 [11][44] Summary by Sections 1. Green Liquid Fuels as Key to Renewable Energy Consumption - Green liquid fuels, including biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green methanol, and renewable ammonia, are crucial for the consumption of renewable energy [17] - The global green fuel industry is rapidly transitioning towards low-carbon and diversified solutions, with SAF, green methanol, and renewable ammonia becoming core areas of focus [17] 2. Policy Drivers of Green Fuel Industry Development - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the shipping industry, aiming for at least 5% of zero-carbon fuel usage by 2030 [39] - The aviation sector is also pushing for net-zero emissions by 2050, with SAF expected to contribute significantly to this goal [44] 3. Supply Side: Accelerated Capacity and Diverse Technological Paths - As of 2024, there are 352 announced SAF projects globally, with a total expected capacity of 89.6 million tons per year, primarily concentrated in the United States [3] - In China, SAF production capacity is projected to increase from 500,000 tons in early 2025 to 1.25 million tons by the end of 2025 [3] 4. Demand Side: Accelerated Decarbonization in Shipping - The shipping industry is actively transitioning to cleaner fuel sources, with a significant number of methanol-fueled vessels already in operation and more on order [11] - The demand for methanol in shipping is expected to reach 693,000 tons annually as new vessels are delivered [11] 5. Investment Logic and Related Companies - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: 1. Fuel producers with capacity and export qualifications, such as Jiaao Environmental Protection and Haineng Energy [12] 2. New energy companies with advantages in green electricity resources, like Jidian Co. and Goldwind Technology [12] 3. Key equipment manufacturers across the entire production process, including Huaguang Huaneng and Shuangliang Energy [12]