银河期货花生日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the price of common peanuts has been relatively strong, while the price of imported peanuts has remained stable. With an increase in supply and weak downstream demand, peanut prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have recently shown stability. Oil mills are making reasonable profits from pressing operations. The price of common peanuts in Henan is around 3.6 yuan per catty. The quality of peanuts in Henan and other regions is poor, resulting in relatively low peanut prices, but they have started to stabilize and rebound. The futures market is currently trading on the assumption of an abundant supply of oil peanuts, and oil mills have not made large - scale purchases. However, as the price of common peanuts in Henan begins to rise, peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is expected that the production of new - season peanuts will be higher than last year, and the planting cost will decrease. When new - season peanuts are widely available, the peanut 01 contract will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 7892, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume of 3,483 (down 14.57%) and an open interest of 7,411 (up 60.93%); PK510 closed at 8142, up 16 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 23 (down 51.06%) and an open interest of 509 (up 3.88%); PK601 closed at 7812, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume of 44,455 (down 35.74%) and an open interest of 165,434 (down 1.80%) [2]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with no change. The price of peanut meal in Rizhao was 3250, and the price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 3030 (down 10). The price of peanut oil was 14580, and the price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao was 8340 (up 50). The import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600, and those of Senegalese peanuts were 7600, both with no change [2]. - Spread: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 80 (no change), PK04 - PK10 was - 250 (down 4), and PK10 - PK01 was 330 (up 4) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China are stable. In Northeast China, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin, and Changtu, Liaoning, is 4.3 yuan per catty. In the Henan production area, the price of Baisha common peanuts is 3.6 - 3.75 yuan per catty, and in Junan, Shandong, it is 3.9 yuan per catty. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts is 8600 yuan per ton, Senegalese peanuts are 7600 yuan per ton, Brazilian new peanuts are 9200 yuan per ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts are 8000 yuan per ton. It is expected that peanut prices will remain relatively stable in the short term. Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7700 - 7900 yuan per ton, and the theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7920 yuan per ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The price of domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is 14500 yuan per ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16500 yuan per ton. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao has declined to 3010 yuan per ton (down 20). The price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal per unit of protein is low, and peanut meal is expected to be strong in the short term, with a 48 - protein peanut meal price of 3210 yuan per ton [4][6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanuts in the 01 and 05 contracts are fluctuating at low levels, and short - term long positions can be considered [9]. - Calendar Spread: It is advisable to wait and see [10]. - Options: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report includes six charts, namely the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][19][22].