螺纹热卷日报-20251104

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel is 3180 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (-10), Shanghai Ansteel hot-rolled coil is 3310 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3230 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Market situation: Commodities declined overall, and the steel sector followed suit. Spot trading was generally weak, with low-price rigid demand purchases and futures-spot sales. The basis widened slightly [5] - Supply and demand: Steel production resumed at an accelerated pace last week, but iron ore production declined in Hebei due to environmental restrictions. Steel demand continued to recover, inventory clearance accelerated, and apparent demand increased [5] - Influencing factors: Coal prices rose, coal mine accidents occurred frequently, and environmental governance in Wuhai coal mines led to short-term supply shortages of coking coal. However, plate inventory was high, capital release slowed down in the fourth quarter, downstream payments were slow, and the number of projects decreased year-on-year. The impact of macro factors was gradually fading, and there was still pressure on the upside [5] - Price trend: Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range following coking coal, and a breakthrough required more factors [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: Hold long positions in the hot-rolled coil-thread steel spread [7] - Options: Adopt a wait-and-see approach [8] Group 4: Important News - Malaysia imposed anti-dumping duties on certain galvanized steel coils and sheets imported from China, South Korea, and Vietnam. The duty on Shougang Jingtang United Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. was 772%, and the duty on other Chinese exporters was 26.80% [9] - The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in October were 1.61 million, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative wholesale sales from January to October were 12.054 million, a year-on-year increase of 30% [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes various charts related to steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][15]