美元指数走强及流动性偏紧或使沪锡价格承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has led to an expectation of tight supply and demand. However, due to the hawkish shift in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and tight liquidity, the Shanghai tin price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The Shanghai tin basis is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within the reasonable range. This is due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, leading to an expected tight supply, and a decline in the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad. However, with the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, tight liquidity, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9]. - The LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and within the reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is because the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US in October was weak, and the inventory of refined tin in the LME is increasing but still at a relatively low level. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the LME has increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has decreased compared to last week [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin ore has decreased, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic tin ore [19][20]. - The production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in November may increase month - on - month. Reasons include the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian president, the commissioning of the second concentrator of the Uis mine in Namibia, the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC, and the suspension of the transit export of Myanmar tin ore through Thailand [22][24]. - The production volume of recycled tin in China in November may increase month - on - month [25][26]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat) compared to last week; the production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in November may increase (decrease) month - on - month [29]. - The import volume of refined tin in China in November may increase month - on - month. The export volume of refined tin from Indonesia is expected to increase, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports [30][32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in November [36]. - The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in November may decrease (increase) month - on - month [37][39]. - The production (import, export) volume of tin - plated sheets in China in November may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month [40]. - The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has decreased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect the demand for tin [42][44].