贵金属月报：金银处于阶段性调整之中-20251104

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In October, after hitting record highs, the prices of gold and silver retreated. The sharp rise in precious metal prices had fully priced in many positive factors. With the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, gold and silver prices have entered a phase of adjustment, which is expected to be long - term and significant. Short - term rebounds do not change the medium - term adjustment trend [3][45]. - In the long run, the safe - haven attribute of precious metals is strengthening, and their monetary attribute is returning. The logic for the long - term rise of gold and silver remains solid [3][45]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Precious Metals Market Review - In October 2025, due to the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats, the prices of international gold and silver reached new highs. COMEX gold futures hit a record high of $4398 per ounce on October 20, and COMEX silver futures reached a record high of $53.76 per ounce on October 17. After the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the prices of gold and silver declined. By the end of October, the monthly increase of COMEX gold futures was 3.24%, and that of COMEX silver futures was 3.01% [8]. - Domestic gold and silver prices followed the trend of the international market. Shanghai gold futures reached a record high of 1001.96 yuan per gram on October 21 and then declined. Shanghai silver futures were less volatile than international silver prices [9]. 2. Analysis of Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices 2.1 Sino - US Economic and Trade Relations - Trump's tariff threats in October quickly eased. The Trump administration relaxed some tariff policies, and Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a framework agreement in mid - to - late October and a final agreement on October 30. The US will cancel a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and suspend other measures for one year, and China will make corresponding adjustments. However, the game between the two countries continues, and future tariff policies may change [14][15]. 2.2 US Government Shutdown - The US federal government shutdown has lasted for 34 days, which may be the longest in history. It has affected various fields, and limited economic data indicate a weakening US economy. For example, the ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, and corporate layoffs have reached a new high since 2020 [16][18]. 2.3 Fed's Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. After the meeting, the market's expectation of future interest - rate cuts decreased. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December dropped to 67%, and there is still about two cuts expected in 2026. However, the uncertainty of next year's interest - rate cuts has increased due to factors such as tariff - inflation transmission and the change of the Fed chairman [19][20]. 3. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 3.1 Gold - Silver Ratio - In October, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fluctuated greatly, first dropping from 85 to around 80 and then rebounding to 86 before falling again. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio first rose to around 84 and then dropped to 80. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio may rise in the future [26]. 3.2 Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - In October, international gold and silver prices reached new highs, and there was a significant premium of foreign markets over domestic markets. The London silver spot shortage led to a price inversion. After the end of the London silver squeeze in late October, the price differences returned to normal [28]. 3.3 Central Banks' Gold Purchases - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought more than 1000 tons of gold, and in the third quarter of 2025, they accelerated their gold - buying, with a net purchase of 220 tons. China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. In the future, central banks are expected to continue to increase their gold holdings [31][32]. 3.4 Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In 2025, investment demand drove the growth of gold demand. In the third quarter, global gold investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year, and gold ETFs were the main driving force. However, Chinese gold ETFs had an outflow of about $5.4 billion in the third quarter. By the end of October, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR increased by 20 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares decreased by 453 tons [35][36]. 3.5 Precious Metals Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was about 1187 tons, a 4.69% decrease from the previous month but a 123% increase from the same period last year. The COMEX silver inventory was about 16428 tons, a 1.89% increase from the previous month and a 72% increase from the same period last year. The silver inventories of domestic exchanges decreased significantly in October, and it is expected that some domestic silver flowed to London [39][40][41]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - In the short - to - medium term, gold and silver prices are in a phase of adjustment. In the long term, the safe - haven and monetary attributes of precious metals support their upward trend [45].