冠通期货研究报告：利好兑现后铜价偏弱调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the bullish factors on the copper futures market have been realized. Currently, there is no upward driving force, and the market is undergoing a weak adjustment. The downstream market has a strong bearish sentiment, resulting in poor high - price transactions. However, the medium - and long - term expectation of tight copper resources remains unchanged, and the low global copper inventory supports the copper price, so there is still an upward expectation in the medium and long term. In the short term, the copper price will be weakly sorted [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing an intraday decline. The copper ore resources are tight. The accident in the Indonesian copper mine is expected to affect the global copper supply until next year. Although the copper concentrate inventory has rebounded this week, it is still significantly lower than the same period last year. The market expects the long - term contract price to be zero or negative. In October, 8 smelters carried out maintenance, and 5 are expected to do so in November, leading to a downward trend in copper production. With the recent rise in copper prices, the supply of scrap copper is expected to increase to supplement the tight copper ore. The rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, with a slight decline in downstream operating rates and a mild and small increase in Shanghai copper inventory in recent days [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing an intraday decline [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 70 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 10 yuan/ton. On November 3, 2025, the LME official price was 10887 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 14.5 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of November 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 US cents/pound [8] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 40,100 tons, an increase of 4674 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 133,600 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 358,500 short tons, an increase of 6998 short tons from the previous period [11]