期现价格共振回升

Report Overview - The report is a futures research report on urea by Guantong Futures, released on November 4, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the demand side supports the futures price, and the current futures price is still at a discount to the spot price. Seasonal storage enterprises should pay attention to the futures hedging opportunities [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Urea futures opened higher and fluctuated strongly on the day. Both the futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] - Urea production continues to rise, with the daily output exceeding 190,000 tons. There is no large - scale gas and production restriction yet, and high - level daily production is expected in the near future [1] - Due to the strong demand for peak - winter energy, coal prices are expected to rise, and the cost of coal - water slurry process provides support for urea prices [1] - The demand for autumn fertilizers is ending, and other demands are mainly for fertilizer storage. The price of compound fertilizer for winter storage is still in the negotiation stage. After the phosphate fertilizer meeting, the procurement is expected to start [1] - The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased. The operating rate will gradually rise, and the finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1] - Due to the improvement in weather and the end of agricultural demand, the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing has increased. Coupled with fertilizer storage demand, the urea inventory has decreased this period [1] - India issued a long - term contract tender for 2.5 million tons in 2026 on November 3, 2025, an increase of 1 million tons compared to 2025 [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1,624 yuan/ton, closed at 1,630 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The trading volume was 272,271 lots (+2,518 lots) [2] - Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 4,948 lots, and short positions increased by 1,723 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +3,341 lots, Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 302 lots, Minmetals Futures had a net short position of - 1,054 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of +997 lots [2] - On November 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, a net increase of 2,445 compared to the previous trading day [2][3] Spot - The spot price rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at 160 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - On November 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [10]