ADAMA(SZ:000553) EBSCN·2025-11-04 10:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.678 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 423 million yuan, narrowing by 77% year-on-year [1]. - The agricultural chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, with the company expected to benefit from this trend due to its leading position in the global crop protection sector [3]. - The report projects a gradual improvement in profitability, with net profits expected to be -512 million yuan in 2025, followed by positive profits in 2026 and 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.62%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 342 million yuan, narrowing by 63.69% year-on-year but widening by 47.94% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin improved by 4.0 percentage points to 26.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by operational efficiency and reduced inventory costs [2]. Industry Outlook - The agricultural chemical industry is seeing a recovery in demand, with channel inventories returning to pre-2020 levels. The domestic pesticide raw material price index increased by 1.7% in Q3 2025 [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in agricultural chemical prices, with certain product prices stabilizing after previous declines [3]. Profitability Forecast - The report revises the profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of -512 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 703 million yuan respectively, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability over the forecast period [3][5].