农林牧渔行业报告（2025.10.27-2025.11.2）：猪价止涨回落，四季度供应压力仍大

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown a good performance recently, with the agricultural index rising by 1.99%, ranking sixth among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The pig price has peaked and is expected to face downward pressure due to supply issues in the fourth quarter, despite a recent increase in prices [5][20] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages, recommending leading firms such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as smaller firms like Juxing Agriculture and Huatong Food [6][20] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index increasing by 1.99% while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.43% [12] - Among agricultural sub-sectors, grain and oil processing saw the highest increase, supported by strong performance from leading companies in the pig farming sector [15] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pig Farming - Pig prices initially rose to 12.35 CNY/kg but fell to 12.15 CNY/kg due to insufficient demand and increased supply from northern enterprises [5][17] - The average loss for self-bred pigs is around 89 CNY per head, while for purchased piglets, it is about 179 CNY [18] - The Ministry of Agriculture's policies to control production capacity are expected to accelerate capacity reduction, potentially leading to a price increase in the second half of next year [20] Broiler Chicken - As of October 31, the price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.7 CNY per chick, with an average profit of 0.8 CNY per chick [31] - The price of broiler chickens was 3.55 CNY per kg, reflecting a 5.34% increase, but overall demand remains weak [31][32] - The decline in the number of grandparent stock updates indicates potential future supply issues, although the current supply chain remains stable [32] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with white sugar priced at 5730 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [36] - Soybean prices are on the rise, with Brazilian soybeans at 4062 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.3% [38] - Cotton prices have slightly increased to 14807 CNY/ton, while corn prices have decreased to 2203 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY [38]