全球策略月报：外忧暂解，内驱待启-20251104

Group 1: International Market Insights - The report anticipates a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown by mid-November, with a significant probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7][9][20] - U.S. CPI data for September showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, slightly below expectations, indicating that inflation remains above target but is not rapidly rising [8][11] - The AI narrative among major U.S. tech companies is expected to continue driving the stock market, with large-cap indices showing strong support from robust earnings despite high valuations [23][24] Group 2: Domestic Market Insights - The domestic economy is showing signs of recovery, with industrial output increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in September, surpassing market expectations [31][33] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, indicating a shift in focus from quantitative growth targets [33][41] - The A-share market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in November, with a shift from tech growth to more defensive sectors like coal and steel [34][41] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation defensive sectors, such as food and beverage, which may provide defensive value amid a lack of market expectations [44][48] - There is an increasing interest in resource sectors driven by high dividend yields and expectations of "anti-involution" measures, with PPI data indicating price stabilization in certain industries [48][49] - Capital expenditure in technology sectors continues to expand, particularly in automotive and electronics, indicating ongoing growth potential despite potential volatility [51]