出版行业三季报总结：业韧持坚，勇毅前行

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the publishing industry, indicating a gradual recovery in market conditions and recommending attention to state-owned publishing companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential [4][5][19]. Core Insights - The publishing industry generated revenue of 96.08 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. In Q3 2025, revenue was 30.73 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 9.4% to 2.4 billion yuan [4][16]. - The report highlights that the industry is under pressure due to stricter regulations on educational materials and weak recovery in general book consumption, but the decline in revenue is narrowing. The implementation of tax incentives is contributing to a recovery in profitability, with positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters [4][5][16]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of state-owned publishing groups, which are expected to maintain stability, while private publishers are experiencing continued performance divergence [5][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The publishing industry is showing signs of recovery, with a projected gradual improvement in market conditions driven by enhanced product development and channel transformation [4][16]. - The overall revenue for state-owned publishing groups remains stable, while private publishers are facing varied performance outcomes [5][33]. Financial Metrics - The publishing sector's valuation is relatively low, with a PE (TTM) of 18.8X and a PS (TTM) of 2.1X, indicating high cost-effectiveness for investment [19]. - The report notes that the sector's return rate for 2024 is projected at 7.3%, ranking second within the media sector, while the return rate for Q1-Q3 2025 was -5.2%, reflecting good risk management [19][21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned publishing companies with strong content and distribution advantages, such as Shandong Publishing, Zhongyuan Media, and others, which are expected to benefit from a stable regulatory environment and improved market conditions [5][6][39]. - Companies with leading positions in AI+ education, such as Nanfang Media and Century Tianhong, are highlighted as key investment targets due to their innovative approaches and resource advantages [6][5].