海外宏观周报：联储如期降息，12月决议未成定局-20251104

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%[1] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction starting December 1 and reinvest all maturing MBS into short-term Treasuries was made[1] - Powell indicated that the decision for further rate cuts in December is "far from certain" due to internal disagreements within the committee[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate slightly rising but still low[2] - The October CPI in the Eurozone increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with core CPI growth stable at 2.4%[8] - The FHFA house price index in the U.S. showed a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 2.33%, but month-on-month growth turned positive[8] Market Outlook - U.S. equities have room for further gains, with the current market conditions differing from the late 1990s bubble due to sufficient financing surpluses among G4 non-financial corporations[2] - The expected strong performance in Q3 earnings and seasonal factors suggest positive returns for U.S. stocks in November and December[2] Risk Factors - A resurgence in inflation or a rebound in the labor market could lead the Federal Reserve to delay further rate cuts[3][20]