地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：云南篇

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Yunnan Province, analyzing the economic and fiscal strength, debt situation, and the solvency of urban investment enterprises [4] - Yunnan Province has prominent regional importance, obvious resource endowment advantages, and continuous improvement in the transportation system. It has great development potential in the future, but also faces challenges such as high government debt and short - term solvency pressure of urban investment enterprises [4][5] Group 2: Yunnan Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Yunnan Province is located at the junction of China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, with rich tourism and natural resources. It has formed a comprehensive transportation system, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways [6] - In 2024, Yunnan's GDP was 31534.10 billion yuan, ranking 18th in China, with a growth rate of 3.3%. The per - capita GDP was 67,600 yuan, ranking 23rd. In the first half of 2025, the GDP was 15537.44 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.4% [9] - The industrial structure has been continuously optimized, showing a "tertiary - secondary - primary" pattern. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth, and new industries such as silicon photovoltaics, green aluminum, and new energy batteries are developing rapidly [11] - Yunnan benefits from national strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the construction of the China (Yunnan) Free Trade Pilot Zone, and the Western Development Strategy, as well as central financial transfer payments and special funds [14][15][16] 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Yunnan's general public budget revenue ranked in the middle - lower level in China, with fair revenue quality and low fiscal self - sufficiency. Government - funded revenue increased year - on - year, and superior subsidies contributed significantly to comprehensive fiscal resources [20] - By the end of 2024, the local government debt balance was 16319.2 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 212.39% and a debt - to - GDP ratio of 51.75%, ranking 28th and 23rd in China respectively [22] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefectures and Cities in Yunnan Province 1. Economic Strength - The economic development of prefectures and cities in Yunnan is unbalanced, with the central Yunnan urban agglomeration centered around Kunming being stronger [24] - In 2024, the GDP of cities and prefectures over 200 billion yuan included Kunming, Qujing, Honghe, Yuxi, Chuxiong, Zhaotong, and Dali. Kunming had the highest GDP, accounting for 26.24% of the province's total [30] - The per - capita GDP of Yuxi, Kunming, Chuxiong, and Diqing was over 70,000 yuan in 2024. The central Yunnan urban agglomeration had a relatively high population concentration and urbanization level [31] 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation (1) Fiscal Revenue - The general public budget revenue of prefectures and cities in Yunnan varied significantly. In 2024, most regions had a decline in the proportion of tax revenue and weak fiscal self - sufficiency, except for Kunming and Yuxi [33] - The government - funded revenue of prefectures and cities showed differentiation. The central Yunnan urban agglomeration improved, but most regions were still sluggish. In 2024, Kunming, Yuxi, and Chuxiong had significant improvements [38] - Prefectures and cities in Yunnan received large - scale superior subsidies, which contributed significantly to comprehensive fiscal resources. In 2024, Zhaotong, Kunming, Qujing, Honghe, and Wenshan received over 30 billion yuan in subsidies [40] (2) Debt - By the end of 2024, the debt balance of prefectures and cities in Yunnan continued to grow, with a slowdown in the growth rate. The debt - to - GDP ratio and debt ratio continued to rise, and half of the regions had a debt ratio higher than 200% [41] - The Yunnan government has taken measures to control debt, such as strictly implementing debt - resolution plans, preventing and resolving implicit debt risks, and promoting the transformation of state - owned platform enterprises [43] Group 4: Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Yunnan Province 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of June 2025, there were 41 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Yunnan, mainly concentrated in Kunming. In 2024 and the first half of 2025, the credit rating of one enterprise was downgraded [44][47] 2. Bond Issuance - In 2024, the bond issuance scale of urban investment enterprises in Yunnan increased significantly year - on - year, with a shift from net outflow to net inflow. In the first half of 2025, it turned to net outflow [48] - In 2024, 20 urban investment enterprises issued 84 bonds with a total scale of 804.15 billion yuan. Kunming accounted for 92.80% of the total issuance scale [48] 3. Solvency Analysis - By the end of 2024, the debt burden and short - term solvency indicators of urban investment enterprises in Yunnan changed little compared to the previous year, with overall weak performance. Urban investment enterprises in Kunming faced large - scale bond maturities in Q4 2025 and 2026 [52][53] - The fiscal revenue of prefectures and cities in Yunnan had a low level of support for the broad - based debt of urban investment enterprises, with the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive fiscal resources" ranging from 120% to 600% [58]