Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Daily, Agricultural Products R & D Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.09, down 0.01 from the previous trading day [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 8861, down 243 from yesterday [2] - AP05: 9112, down 362 from yesterday [2] - AP10: 8218, down 156 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Market News Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage apple inventory in the main producing areas of China was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week [4] Import and Export - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 108,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49% [4] - In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [4] Market Conditions - Last Friday, the mainstream apple market in the producing areas was stable. In Shandong, the high - end price of the price range increased slightly due to the gradual trading of striped apples. Currently, the supply of goods in Shandong is still relatively sufficient. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the standard of general goods, and the standard goods are relatively scarce. During the weekend, some merchants postponed their purchases due to the low cost - effectiveness of the goods, and the price of general goods in Shandong decreased slightly. The market arrivals were stable, and the mainstream price remained stable [4] Profit - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [5] Spot Price Details - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of apples was stable. The mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty, the high price was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and the low price was 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty, priced according to quality. The mainstream price of juice apples was 0.2 yuan per catty. There was very little remaining stock outside the warehouse, and the low - price goods were mainly sent directly to the market. Local storage continued, and currently, it was mainly external goods being stored [6] - In Qixia, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples was stable, and the price of general goods decreased slightly. The price of first - and second - grade bagged Fuji apples above 80 was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty for slice - red, and the transaction price range for striped apples was 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per catty. The mainstream price of first - and second - grade apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and the high - standard price was 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty, priced according to quality. The price of first - and second - grade semi - apples above 80 was 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty, the price of general goods above 80 was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the price of third - grade fruits was 1.3 - 1.8 yuan per catty, priced according to quality. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants for general goods decreased in recent days, and the price of general goods decreased slightly [6] Group 4: Trading Logic - The new - season apples have a low excellent - fruit rate. Due to weather conditions, the apple quality is poor, with smaller fruit diameters, an increased proportion of water cracks and mildew, a low apple warehouse - receipt production rate, and high warehouse - receipt costs [7] - The poor apple quality with epidemic rot disease makes the apples deteriorate soon after storage, increasing the storage difficulty. The market is worried that the cold - storage apples have a short shelf - life and cannot be stored until the far - month delivery [7] - This year, the cost of merchants purchasing high - quality apples is high, and the purchasing difficulty is large. From the current storage situation, the storage volume this year is likely to be low. There are rumors that the storage volume this year may be less than last year, and last year's cold - storage apple inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. With a low storage volume, the high - quality effective inventory may be even lower. Therefore, it is expected that the apple spot price will likely remain at a high level. However, the market has been volatile recently, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for the storage data [7] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Stay on the sidelines [15] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [15] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the price of 80 first - and second - grade bagged apples in Qixia, the price of 70 semi - commercial bagged apples in Luochuan, AP contract main - contract basis, price differences between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in wholesale markets, 6 - kind fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - storage volume [10][12][18][22]
银河期货农产品日报-20251104
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-04 11:05