限额以下消费或回升——10月经济数据前瞻

Group 1: Economic Outlook - In October, limited consumption is expected to rebound, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for limited goods consumption, up from 3.77% in September[2] - The average growth rate for limited goods consumption (excluding catering) is forecasted to be 2.7% in 2023, 3.55% in 2024, and 4.24% in the first three quarters of 2025[3] - The contribution of limited goods consumption (excluding catering) to total retail sales is significant, accounting for 52.2% in 2024[3] Group 2: Price Trends - CPI is expected to show a slight year-on-year decline of around -0.1% in October, with a month-on-month change of approximately 0%[4] - PPI is projected to decrease by -0.2% month-on-month and slightly worsen to -2.4% year-on-year in October[4] Group 3: Production and Trade - Industrial production growth is anticipated to slow to about 5.5% in October[5] - Export growth is expected to decline to around 3.5% year-on-year in October, while imports are projected to grow by 1%[5][13] Group 4: Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment growth is forecasted to drop to -0.8% for the period from January to October, with real estate investment down by -14.5%[5][17] - Real estate sales area growth is expected to be around -15% in October, with major developers experiencing a 41.9% year-on-year decrease in sales[5][18] Group 5: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to reach 1.1 trillion yuan in October, a decrease of 200 billion yuan compared to the previous year[6][24] - M2 growth is projected to be around 8.4% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to be approximately 6%[6][24]