贵金属日报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is represented by three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that another rate cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3%, causing non - interest - bearing gold to lose the support of falling interest rates [2] - The dovish representative, Governor Milan, advocates significant rate cuts, while hawks like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee are concerned about inflation, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid believes that further rate cuts carry high risks [3] - The market has entered a typical "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties, including the unclear Fed policy outlook, data vacuum due to the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy, are putting pressure on gold prices. Gold prices still face a risk of further correction in the short term [3] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions of Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals continued to oscillate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected and the previous value. Precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform, and it's recommended to wait and see. For silver, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise [2] Fed's Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% last week, the second cut this year. Chairman Powell said another cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3% [2] - Dovish and hawkish officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Dovish officials advocate significant cuts, while hawkish officials are concerned about inflation and the risks of further cuts [3] Market Risks and Outlook - The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties are pressuring gold prices, and there is a risk of further short - term correction [3]