现实格局偏弱，螺纹钢承压运行

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Thanks to positive market sentiment and strong cost support, the price of rebar has rebounded from a recent low. However, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the sustainability of the upward driving force is not strong. Once the market operation logic switches to the industrial side, the steel price is likely to be under pressure in the weak reality pattern. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Trend in October - In October, the futures and spot prices of rebar showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The lowest price of the futures main contract dropped to 3,021 yuan/ton, and then rose to a maximum of 3,143 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar mainly followed the futures trend, with a slightly lower price fluctuation range and a weakening basis [2]. - The rebound of rebar price at the end of October was mainly due to the short - term fermentation of positive factors, including a favorable macro - atmosphere (the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the smooth progress of Sino - US trade tariff negotiations), production restrictions in Tangshan due to heavy pollution weather, and cost support from strong raw materials [2]. Supply Situation - The recent upward trend of ferrous metal prices is mainly driven by optimistic sentiment, and the industrial support is limited, with questionable sustainability. The supply and demand of rebar are both increasing. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the production has reached a relatively high level, with high inventory and increasing supply pressure [3]. - As of the week ending October 31, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,700 tons compared with the end of September. The increase in rebar production was mainly due to the increase in long - process steel mills, while the production of short - process steel mills was relatively stable and remained at a high level. It is expected that the production of short - process steel mills will maintain a high - level and stable operation in the future [3]. - Although the rebar inventory has decreased recently, the decline is limited, and the inventory level is still at a high level in recent years. The total inventory is 6.0252 million tons, with a slight increase of 270 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory pressure is relatively large [4]. Demand Situation - The demand for rebar has seasonally recovered, but the downstream industries have not improved. As of the week ending October 31, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 232,190 tons, lower than the pre - holiday level and the lowest in the same period in the past five years. The total demand in October was 927,270 tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years [5]. - The daily trading volume data is weaker. The average daily trading volume of construction steel by major national traders in October was 101,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.51%. Although some downstream observation indicators such as cement and concrete have increased, the improvement in building material demand is limited and unsustainable due to poor project funds and the approaching off - season [5][6]. - Overall, during the "Silver October", the demand for rebar showed a seasonal improvement but was still at a low level in recent years. Considering the weak real - estate fundamentals and the decline in infrastructure investment growth, the demand for rebar is expected to weaken in the off - season, which will suppress the steel price [6].