固本培元，龙头红利化：2026年钢铁行业年度策略

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the steel industry is expected to face challenges in demand due to a decline in real estate and construction activities, with a projected decrease in crude steel demand from 101,530 million tons in 2023 to 98,649 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.10% [44][61][71] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's steel demand is projected to drop significantly from 30,747 million tons in 2023 to 10,061 million tons in 2026, marking a substantial decrease of 67.32% [44][61][71] - Infrastructure demand is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 15,327 million tons in 2025 to 15,634 million tons in 2026, indicating a growth of 2.00% [44][61][71] Group 2 - The report outlines that the machinery sector's steel demand is projected to grow from 14,524 million tons in 2025 to 14,959 million tons in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 3.00% [44][61][71] - The automotive sector is expected to see an increase in steel demand from 6,911 million tons in 2025 to 7,256 million tons in 2026, which represents a growth of 5.00% [44][61][71] - The energy sector's steel demand is projected to remain stable, with a slight decrease from 4,123 million tons in 2025 to 4,082 million tons in 2026, indicating a decline of 1.00% [44][61][71] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stimulating demand, particularly in the real estate sector, where favorable policies are expected to boost demand expectations [12] - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on energy efficiency and emissions reduction, as indicated by the government's plans to enhance energy efficiency standards and reduce crude steel production [59] - The report suggests that the overall steel market will experience a shift towards more sustainable practices, which may impact production levels and demand dynamics in the coming years [59]