Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rubber: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, weakening in oscillation, and slightly declining. The price center moved down to below 14,900 yuan/ton during the session and closed 1.42% lower at 14,875 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 85 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a situation dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing open interest, weakening in the downward direction, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,143 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,105 yuan/ton, closing 1.86% lower at 2,115 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 110 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the future [6]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 468.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 462.9 yuan/barrel, closing 0.37% lower at 463.5 yuan/barrel. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America, the premium of domestic and foreign crude oil futures increased. Meanwhile, OPEC's suspension of production capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year led to changes in supply expectations, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%, and the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points and a year - on - year significant decrease of 5.90 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a year - on - year slight decrease of 3.20 percentage points. In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year significant increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15% [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.88%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.67%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 1.78%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 95,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons last year. The inventory of methanol in ports in East and South China was 1.2829 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 13,100 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 261,900 tons [10][11]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 420, a slight week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.644 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,000 barrels/day. The commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 416 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.858 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 9.543 million barrels [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 14,875 yuan/ton | - 220 yuan/ton | - 225 yuan/ton | + 220 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,125 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 2,115 yuan/ton | - 28 yuan/ton | + 10 yuan/ton | - 28 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 435.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 463.5 yuan/barrel | - 4.4 yuan/barrel | - 27.8 yuan/barrel | + 4.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21] - Methanol: No detailed description of chart content is provided, only chart names like methanol basis, methanol port inventory in China, etc. are mentioned [30][32] - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI crude oil net position holding change, etc. [43][45][47]
偏空情绪增强，能化延续弱势：橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-04 11:20