南华期货油料产业周报：预期重启美豆采购，内盘跟随外盘反弹-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of Sino-US negotiations. With the expectation of 12 million tons of exports to China being gradually priced in, the ending stocks are expected to remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, there is limited upward momentum due to the expected smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The domestic soybean meal is constrained by high near-term inventories, so the rebound space is limited. If the purchase of US soybeans is effectively initiated, it will bring a downward drive for the far-term, but the downward range is also limited due to the cost support from the rebound of the external market. For rapeseed meal, due to the ongoing Sino-Canadian negotiations affecting market expectations, the near-term futures performance is slightly stronger, but it is not advisable to chase the long side [1]. - The far-month soybean import profit has slightly recovered but remains at a low level, indicating limited far-term soybean purchases. With the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market expects the resumption of US soybean purchases, alleviating the far-term supply gap. For rapeseed meal, there is a near-term supply gap due to Sino-Canadian tariffs, but demand is expected to weaken simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year. The "anti-involution" policy for downstream pigs is unlikely to effectively reduce demand, so the demand reduction is expected to be limited. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has returned to normal, laying a foundation for a smooth harvest, while the soil moisture in Argentina is still slightly dry. The subsequent pressure of a bumper harvest will be transmitted to the domestic meal market in the form of basis [15]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Soybean Meal: The external market focuses on US soybean exports to China, with limited upward momentum. The domestic market is constrained by high near-term inventories, and the far-term may face downward pressure if US soybean purchases resume [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Affected by Sino-Canadian negotiations, the near-term performance is slightly stronger, but chasing the long side is not recommended. The domestic rapeseed import has decreased significantly this year, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected resumption of Sino-Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover [1][2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through this range [23]. - Strategy Suggestions: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options, selling 3300 call options for the M2601 contract; sell 2600 call options for the rapeseed meal 2601 contract [23]. - Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies: Use accumulating option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks, and view the basis as likely to return to positive and strengthen. Hold the positive spread positions for M3 - 5 and M1 - 3. Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 contracts when the spread is between 650 - 700 [24]. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - Price Range Forecast: The soybean meal price is expected to range between 2800 - 3300, and the rapeseed meal price between 2250 - 2750 [26]. - Hedging Strategies: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [26]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures Prices: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different changes, with some rising and some falling. The CBOT yellow soybean price remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [27]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed various trends, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The import costs and压榨 profits of US and Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed were also provided [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US Department of Agriculture will release the production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on November 14 (originally scheduled for November 10, but the release is uncertain due to the government shutdown). As of October 30, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state has reached 76.13% of the expected area [31]. - Negative Information: Chinese importers have booked Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. If China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year, it can meet the USDA's export target for the 2024/25 season, but it may not drive a continuous price increase. The short-term price increase sustainability needs to be observed, and if the agreement implementation falls short of expectations, there may be technical profit-taking pressure [32]. - Spot Transaction Information: Downstream buyers continue to purchase on a just-in-time basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the USDA releases the supply and demand report on November 10. Also, pay attention to various reports such as the USDA export inspection report, Brazilian Secex weekly and monthly reports, USDA crop growth report, and CFTC agricultural product position report [37][40]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The soybean meal futures rebounded due to short covering and the increase in external market costs. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, with a stronger rebound due to reduced warehouse receipt pressure and Sino-Canadian trade relationship uncertainties. The capital flow shows that foreign institutional short positions were closed, and institutional long positions were reduced in the second half of the week, indicating limited upward space. The put-call ratio (PCR) of soybean meal options shows a return of bearish sentiment [38]. - Month Spread Structure: The futures month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally show a B structure in the first half of the year and a C structure in the second half, related to their seasonal supply patterns. This week, the 1 - 5 month spread of soybean meal first rose and then fell, and the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal strengthened due to the unilateral increase in the 01 contract [43]. - Basis Structure: The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined this week due to the faster increase in futures prices than spot prices. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased [47]. - External Market: The external and domestic markets showed a more consistent trend this week. After the expectation of Sino-US trade talks and the news of soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed suit. The net long positions of CBOT soybean management funds have returned above the zero line, indicating a short-term return of long funds [52][56]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The crushing profit in the US soybean production area has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, but the monthly crushing volume remains at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened, while the domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the current US soybean crushing profit under a 13% tariff. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans in the future is limited, and the domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline seasonally around holidays. Although the import of rapeseed shows a crushing profit, due to the import margin requirement, future purchases are expected to remain cautious [63]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 International Supply and Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the new crop balance sheet in September, the planting area is expected to marginally increase after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to marginally decrease after being adjusted to the highest level in history. The total production is expected to remain between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. On the demand side, the crushing volume is expected to continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to Sino-US trade relations. If Sino-US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above-normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the potential import of US soybeans, the domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and then recover in the first quarter of next year. The import of rapeseed will continue to remain at a low level [70]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to remain high due to the carry-over inventory from the third quarter and the arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter. After the previous high-level stocking, the subsequent consumption growth of domestic soybean meal is expected to be limited [74]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - The domestic soybean inventory is currently at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease and then stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory will also remain high despite the decline in raw material inventory and crushing volume [76].