塑料日报：震荡运行-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will continue to oscillate weakly in the near term. Currently, the plastics industry has not seen the implementation of actual anti - involution policies, and the anti - involution and elimination of old devices, which aim to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity, are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season and demand is expected to increase, the current peak season is under - performing, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders have slightly decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is fluctuating slightly. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract increased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,852 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,912 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,879 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume increased by 554 lots to 533,139 lots [2]. - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,840 - 7,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,000 - 9,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,070 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending October 31st, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 735,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract oscillated around $65 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton on a month - on - month basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton on a month - on - month basis [4].