油脂产业周报：产地现实驱动程度不同，油脂板块内强弱分化-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market trending weakly. It awaits the final US energy policy in November and further news on Indonesia's B50 plan. The strategy is mainly to wait and see, and there may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes. Also, the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil are expected to widen [2][3]. - The oil and fat market shows short - term weak adjustment and medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There are many negative factors in the oil and fat market. Malaysia's palm oil production increased in October with limited export boost, increasing inventory pressure. Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain, affecting market sentiment, but the transfer of plantation ownership may limit production, and the B40 plan supports the price floor. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks is optimistic for soybean oil, while Sino - Canadian relations are uncertain, making rapeseed oil resistant to decline. Domestically, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient, with short - term pressure, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. - In the short - term, the domestic oil and fat inventory is high, and demand is weak. Downstream consumption is mainly for rigid needs, with limited expansion in the fourth - quarter peak season. In the long - term, the market will focus on the US biofuel obligation in November, the supply - demand balance of palm oil in producing areas, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [5][6][14]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. - Base - Spread, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: The current base - spread is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. For the month - spread, considering the Southeast Asian Ramadan and Indonesia's B50 plan in the first quarter of next year, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils are expected to widen [21][22]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Traders with high oil and fat inventory can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the price range forecasts and volatility data of the three oils [23][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of November 1 was 47.1% [30]. - Negative Information: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production at a seven - year high. India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year [31]. - Spot Transaction Information: Transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [32]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, progress of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, US government information, and USDA data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic Market: The oil and fat market continued to weaken this week due to more negative information. Although the market is bearish, the downward space is limited. The positions of key profit - making seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. The basis structure is weak, and the Back structure has become shallower. The soybean - palm spread strengthened, the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly, and the rapeseed - palm spread changed little [35][36][66]. - Foreign Market: The foreign market was weak first and then strong. The palm oil - producing areas had many negative factors, but Sino - US trade talks were optimistic for soybean oil, and Sino - Canadian relations made rapeseed oil relatively strong [69]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads decreased this week. The cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly, and the cost of US soybean oil for biodiesel production remained low [72]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price has decreased slightly, and the profit improved briefly but then weakened again [74]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in September did not decline as expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. However, there is a strong expectation of La Nina in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [76]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: The procurement intention of traders is low, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. Soybean oil: The supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the pressure may weaken from December. Rapeseed oil: The inventory is high, but it will gradually decrease. If Sino - Canadian relations do not improve, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [79]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats is expected to remain stable and weak [81].