沥青日报：震荡下行-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of oscillating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but a significant reduction in planned production for November. The downstream industry's production rate has mostly increased, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 274,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - Last week, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - Last week, the main refineries in North China maintained stable production and fulfilled contracts for shipment, with a significant increase in shipment volume. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week-on-week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week-on-week, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The production of Sinochem Quanzhou and some main refineries is intermittent, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Projects in many northern regions are rushing to complete work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. In the south, there is more inquiry for low-priced goods. Recently, the market has digested the news of sanctions on Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating. The long-term resources of refineries are being released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.00% to 3,193 yuan per ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,189 yuan per ton, and the highest price was 3,245 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 892 to 206,960 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong has dropped to 3,200 yuan per ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has risen to 7 yuan per ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou have resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1% [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From the perspective of the stock of social financing, from January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the newly added social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].