有色金属周度观点-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides weekly viewpoints on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on different market conditions [1] Summary by Metal Copper - Viewpoint: Copper prices hitting new highs are supported by supply - demand fundamentals and high capital allocation interest, but there is a risk of correction after reaching high levels due to concerns about high - price - suppressed consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and hold some long positions based on it [1] - Analysis: Shanghai copper has a small discount, and Indonesia has issued an export permit for 400,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supply - demand situation is weak in China, with low processing fees for concentrates and possible slowdown in copper exports from Zambia to China. Overseas, there may be some release of concentrate inventory from a mine. There are different views among investment banks on copper prices [1] Aluminum and Alumina - Viewpoint: The market is mainly driven by macro factors and shows a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of Shanghai aluminum in the short - term [1] - Analysis: The trading of overseas bauxite is quiet, and the domestic alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in significant surplus. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory and spot situation are unremarkable [1] Zinc - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage in the zinc market. Do not short - sell zinc in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to the high - level range of 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [1] - Analysis: Low inventory supports the strength of LME zinc, and the domestic zinc export window is open. The smelting profit of domestic smelters is high, and the demand for winter storage is strong. The consumption in October was weak, but there was a slight improvement in November. The overall consumption is expected to weaken, and the export data may be better [1] Lead - Viewpoint: Be vigilant about long - positions leaving at high levels. Monitor overseas inventory changes. The upward space of lead in the fourth quarter is restricted by fundamentals [1] - Analysis: The external market has risen, and the domestic market is short of supply. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has also decreased. The consumption of energy storage and data centers is strong, but the battery export outlook is not good. The supply pressure is increasing [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: The nickel market is in a weak operation, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading [1] - Analysis: The nickel market is in a long - position shock, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded. The downstream demand is weak, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of pure nickel has decreased, while the inventory of nickel iron and stainless steel has increased [1] Tin - Viewpoint: Tin prices are volatile and have certain support. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading after a clear breakout [1] - Analysis: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the production is restricted by raw materials. The consumption in traditional fields is average, but there is some rigid - demand point - pricing. The inventory has decreased slightly in some statistics, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [1] Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The futures price is in a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [1] - Analysis: The futures price has risen and then fallen, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory of the whole market has decreased, and the price of Australian ore has strengthened [1] Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: The supply and demand are both weak. The disk is expected to remain firm, but the upward space is restricted by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [1] - Analysis: The production capacity growth in Xinjiang has slowed down, and the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased due to the dry season. The inventory has decreased slightly [1] Polysilicon - Viewpoint: The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. The short - term sentiment is easy to rise and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to policy trends [1] - Analysis: The futures price has broken through 55,000 yuan/ton. The production in October is expected to increase, and the supply and demand structure needs further observation. The factory inventory has increased, reflecting supply pressure [1]