Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in lithium carbonate prices today is mainly due to sentiment, with long - position holders actively reducing their positions. Although the report previously mentioned that November might be a price inflection point, the strong fundamentals have not changed. After the price drop, there are buyers, making it difficult to form a trend - like downward movement. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises can reduce the hedging ratio, downstream enterprises can appropriately stock up or sell put options, and short - chasing is not recommended [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell by more than 5% during the session. Since October 31, lithium prices have significantly corrected. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to market sentiment suppression and the correction of the expected supply elasticity. In October, SMM's lithium carbonate production in China was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, exceeding the previous expectation of 90,000 tons. The market also advanced the expectation of the resumption of production of small - scale lithium mines [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply: SMM's monthly production continued to increase significantly. In October, the production increased by 6.7% month - on - month to 92,300 tons. It is expected to remain strong from November to December, and there is an additional import expectation in November. The resumption of production of small - scale lithium mines has been repeatedly expected, causing large market sentiment fluctuations [4]. - Demand: The current apparent demand is good, and the performance in November is still strong. Attention should be paid to the production plan in December, and the demand may weaken in the first quarter of next year. Optimistic expectations for consumption scenarios such as power batteries and energy storage will generate speculative demand when prices fall, raising the price center [4]. - Inventory and Basis: Social inventory continued to decline last year, and de - stocking is expected to continue in November. Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has been decreasing, and further decline should be watched out for [4]. Summary and Strategy - The decline in lithium carbonate prices today is mainly affected by sentiment, with long - position holders actively reducing their positions. The strong fundamentals have not changed, and it is difficult to form a trend - like downward movement. Further observation of downstream procurement, upstream production, and inventory changes is needed to determine the off - season inflection point. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises can reduce the hedging ratio, downstream enterprises can appropriately stock up or sell put options, and short - chasing is not recommended [5].
情绪压制锂价减仓回落，追空需谨慎
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-04 12:03