Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not specified [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not specified [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market still faces medium - term surplus pressure, but short - term geopolitical risks exist. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - position configuration opportunities after geopolitical risks are repriced [1] - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen further [2] - The asphalt market is bearish. The main contract has fallen, and the fundamentals show negative signals, with prices expected to decline under pressure [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate mainly, as the upward trend has ended, and the fundamentals lack strong support factors while the cost - side guidance turns bearish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Crude oil has shown a fluctuating trend this week. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, but the market supply - demand surplus is expected to expand marginally in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Short - term geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela still exist [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally due to unexpected shutdowns and shipment adjustments at some refineries, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract fell 2% today. Construction in the north is declining, and the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October. The decline in commercial inventory has slowed down, and social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time at the end of October. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The upward trend of the LPG market that started in mid - October has ended. The main contract fell 1.4% today, and the weekly LPG production volume has decreased. Chemical profit improvement has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion - end demand. The refinery storage rate has slightly decreased, while the full - storage rate has increased. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]
国投期货能源日报-20251104
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-04 12:10