Guotou Securities·2025-11-04 14:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 832.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 132.86 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year, with a significant recovery in Q3 showing a 45.4% increase in net profit [1] - The New Business Value (NBV) continued to grow robustly, with a year-on-year increase of 46.2% to 35.724 billion yuan. The first-year premiums for life and health insurance increased by 2.3%, while the standard premium NBVM rose by 9.0 percentage points to 30.6% [1] - The company’s non-auto insurance business grew faster, with a 14.3% increase in non-auto insurance premiums. The overall combined ratio improved by 0.8 percentage points to 97.0% [2] - The investment income showed an upward trend, with a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 5.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [2] Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 1,056.8 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 145.9 billion yuan [3][9] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.06 yuan, with a target price of 66.87 yuan based on a 0.8x 2025 P/EV ratio [4][9]