类权益月报：结构化的小风浪-20251104

Market Overview - In October, the equity market experienced three phases: "TACO - Defense - Offense" with a cumulative drop of 2.34% from October 14-20, driven by heightened defense strategies following tariff threats from Trump[1][9]. - By the end of October, positive news led to a market rebound, with AI and semiconductor sectors leading the gains[1][9]. Structural Risks - Despite a stable long-term trend, structural risks became prominent, characterized by concentrated trading directions and a high proportion of overvalued stocks, leading to decreased market value for money[1][22]. - As of late October, the concentration of trading volume among the top 5% of stocks reached 46%, indicating potential risks[22]. Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is expected to face valuation fluctuations as year-end approaches, with many absolute return institutions needing to realize profits by November and December[2][36]. - As of October 31, the valuation center for bonds priced at 80, 100, and 130 yuan was 52.17%, 33.15%, and 15.60%, respectively, showing slight increases from September[15]. Investment Strategy - The prevailing strategy suggests that while the bull market logic remains intact, structural risks may lead to volatility, making it essential to adjust allocations accordingly[3][62]. - Investors are advised to increase exposure to dividend stocks during market upswings and actively position in thematic investments during corrections[3][62]. Economic Indicators - The October PMI indicated a weak economic foundation, with a composite PMI of 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, marking the lowest since early 2023[3][65].