资产配置日报：从科技到红利-20251104

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a decline with the Wande All A index dropping by 1.03% and a total trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, a decrease of 194.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.79% and 1.76% respectively, with southbound capital inflow amounting to 9.832 billion HKD, primarily into China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Xiaomi Group [1][2] Structural Risks and Market Sentiment - Structural risks have accumulated due to a transition from a period of macroeconomic positive signals to a macro vacuum, leading to market declines [2][3] - The market has seen a continuous decrease in trading volume since October 30, with the Wande All A index down by 2.20% and trading volume shrinking from 2.46 trillion yuan to 1.94 trillion yuan [2][3] Trading Volume and Risk Indicators - The current trading volume indicates potential for further decline, with a volume ratio of 50%-70% observed, averaging at 60% [3] - The concentration of trading volume is at 40.64%, below the historical high of 45%, but still above the bottom indicator of 35% [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on dividend and technology sectors, with the dividend sector showing strength as the China Securities Dividend Index rose by 0.37% and the SW Bank Index increased by 2.03% [3] - It is recommended to monitor trading concentration and consider increasing positions in technology stocks when concentration returns to the 35%-40% range [3] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market remains in a downward trend influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4] - Notably, there has been a significant inflow into innovative drug-related ETFs, indicating a potential area of interest for investors [4] Bond Market Activity - The bond market has shown a pattern of reduced trading volume and fluctuations, with the People's Bank of China announcing a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in government bonds [5][6] - The overall duration level in the market is low, suggesting room for institutions to engage in long-term bond strategies [6] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market has seen significant outflows, particularly in the new energy and precious metals sectors, reflecting a prevailing risk-averse sentiment [7] - The strong US dollar has pressured precious metal prices, with gold and silver experiencing notable declines [7][8] "Anti-Internal Competition" Sector Performance - The "anti-internal competition" sector has faced downward pressure, particularly in lithium carbonate and polysilicon, due to rising production expectations [8][9] - Despite some basic fundamentals remaining stable, market sentiment has shifted negatively, impacting related products [8][9]