11月4日央行公告开展7000亿买断式逆回购及10月恢复国债买卖解读

Report Summary Core View - The central bank will use repurchase agreements and MLF to inject medium - term liquidity into the market, and the scale of medium - term liquidity increase may decline due to the expected RRR cut in the fourth quarter. The resumption of treasury bond trading in October releases a signal of stabilizing growth and does not affect the RRR cut expectation [3][4] Key Points 1. Open Market Operations - On November 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright repurchase operations, equivalent to a 300 - billion - yuan roll - over of 3 - month outright repurchase in November. It is expected to conduct a 6 - month outright repurchase operation with a likely increase in volume, resulting in a continuous 6 - month injection of medium - term liquidity [1] - There will be 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, and the central bank may conduct an equivalent or slightly increased roll - over [3] 2. Reasons for Liquidity Injection - The issuance of 500 billion yuan of local government bonds by the end of the year, the growth of supporting loans after the 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments are put into use, and the increase in the maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in November will lead to a tightening of the capital market. The central bank injects medium - term liquidity to maintain a stable and abundant capital supply [2] 3. Treasury Bond Trading - In October, the central bank resumed treasury bond trading, injecting 20 billion yuan of long - term liquidity into the banking system. The resumption is due to the rise of the 10 - year treasury bond yield to around 1.8% and the widening of the term spread, and it also helps to stabilize the macro - economy [4] 4. Policy Outlook - A new round of growth - stabilizing policies may be introduced in the fourth quarter, with fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market. The central bank will use various price - based and quantity - based policy tools to boost growth, and there is ample room for monetary policy due to low inflation [3][4]