宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251105

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. Although the easing of Sino - US trade relations boosts the US soybean futures price to a 16 - month high and raises domestic import costs, the soybean meal futures price lacks the impetus to follow the increase. With some short - term funds taking profits and leaving the market, the soybean meal futures price turns into wide - range fluctuations. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at the highest level in 7 years, and the continuous losses in the breeding sector lead to weak demand, putting pressure on the spot price and keeping the soybean meal basis negative. Short - term sentiment and cost - driven market face industrial chain pressure, and there is a risk of high - level correction [5] - The palm oil performs the weakest in the oil market, with the market expecting the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of October to climb to a two - year high of 2.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%, which exerts pressure on Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, although the weekly inventory of the three major edible oils has decreased slightly, the total inventory remains at a relatively high level, indicating that the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Currently, the market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment, and the pattern of strong meal and weak oil continues. The palm oil futures price will remain weak in the short term [7] 3. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - frame Views: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is also "oscillation with a weak bias" [5][6] - Core Logic: The soybean market has an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The rise in US soybean prices due to Sino - US trade relations and import costs fails to drive up domestic soybean meal prices effectively. High inventory, weak demand from the breeding sector, and negative basis all contribute to the weak performance. There is a risk of high - level correction [5] Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: The short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation with a weak bias" [6][7] - Core Logic: The palm oil is the weakest in the oil market. High expected Malaysian inventory and relatively high domestic inventory, along with a pessimistic market sentiment and a strong - meal - weak - oil pattern, lead to its weak short - term performance [7]