宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年11月5日）-20251105

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The TL2512 variety is expected to be volatile in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a short - term weakening tendency. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The core logic is that the price and employment sub - indices of the October manufacturing PMI data were weak, along with weak inflation and credit data, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. A moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the long - run to support the demand side, which strongly supports bond futures. However, it is relatively easy to achieve the annual growth target this year, so the possibility of an overall interest rate cut in the short - term is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. In general, bond futures will mainly move in a volatile range in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weakly volatile, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The driving logic is based on the weak economic data and the situation of achieving the annual growth target [5].