碳酸锂日评：存回调空间-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. Although the resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is fluctuating, the production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level. High prices have intensified the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream buyers. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for further price correction. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: On November 3, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 586,668 lots (-328,577), and the open interest was 525,184 lots (-14,744). The price difference between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1480 yuan/ton, the price difference between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 120 yuan/ton, and the price difference between consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton. The basis widened, reaching - 1280 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 81,000 yuan/ton (+450), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 78,800 yuan/ton (+450), and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2200 yuan/ton [3]. - Raw Material Market: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 941 US dollars/ton (-3), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1350 yuan/ton (-30), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2150 yuan/ton (-30) [3]. - Downstream Product Market: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%, domestic) was 113,500 yuan/ton (+3000), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 104,850 yuan/ton (+500), and the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 139,450 yuan/ton (+150) [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene. The Argentine subsidiary of the French mining company Eramet, Eramine, successfully resumed its lithium extraction project. The Centenario Ratones lithium carbonate plant produced 2080 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in the third quarter, almost three times the output of 710 tons in the January - June period. The company plans to reach full - load production in the next 6 - 9 months, with a designed production capacity of 24,000 tons/year of battery - grade lithium carbonate [3]. - Demand Side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In November, the production of cobalt - lithium batteries increased, and the production of manganese - lithium batteries decreased. The production and sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down in September, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [3]. 3.3 Inventory Situation The registered warehouse receipts were 27,290 tons (-331), the social inventory decreased, the inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, and the inventory of other parts increased [3].