金信期货日刊-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On November 4, the price of the soybean meal futures 2601 contract declined, mainly due to the obvious pattern of loose domestic supply - demand and the resonance effect of market expectation adjustment. The contract price will remain under pressure in the short - term, and short - selling opportunities should be grasped [3][6]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold shows signs of stabilization after more than a week of adjustment and low - buying for long positions is recommended. Iron ore is expected to decline in the short - term and should be regarded as oscillating bearishly. Glass will likely maintain an oscillating trend in the short - term. Paper pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level oscillations [9][14][16][20][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - The decline of the soybean meal futures 2601 contract price on November 4 was due to the loose domestic supply - demand pattern and market expectation adjustment. Supply - side pressure is the primary suppressing factor, with high expected soybean imports from September to December, high arrivals in November, and increasing oil mill operating rates leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The unimplemented soybean meal import agreement with Argentina has formed an expected supply increase. On the demand side, the planned reduction of the breeding sow inventory and restrictions on the slaughter scale of leading enterprises have led to weak demand. In the short - term, the contract price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to domestic de - stocking progress and South American soybean sowing. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume has remained high recently, with light downstream transactions. It is expected that the oil mill operating rate will still be high in November, with a monthly soybean crushing volume of about 9 million tons and soybean meal output of about 7 million tons, higher than the average November consumption in the past three years. The oil mill soybean meal inventory is expected to rise above 1.2 million tons by the end of November, and short - selling opportunities should be grasped [3][4][5][6][23]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had an overall intraday pattern of rising and then falling, with a small decline at the end. The Fed's statement on a possible December interest - rate cut is still uncertain. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [9]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and low - buying for long positions is recommended [14]. Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron output may decline periodically. Technically, it has fallen near the previous high and should be regarded as oscillating bearishly. In the short - term, supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents, but in the long - term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [16][17]. Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent driving factors mainly lie in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, it rebounded slightly today and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short - term [20]. Paper Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. Although downstream paper mills' price increases have boosted the pulp price, the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, port de - stocking is lower than expected, and the purchasing side is cautious. It is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level oscillations [27].