Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-05 01:48Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the production and sales of the four major iron ore mines were generally stable. Vale's production and sales increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, Rio Tinto remained basically flat, FMG declined quarter - on - quarter due to the first quarter of the new fiscal year, and BHP decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [1]. - The total iron ore production/processing volume of the four major mines in Q3 was 299.5 million tons, basically flat quarter - on - quarter and up 1.63% year - on - year. In terms of sales, the total sales volume was 291 million tons, up 0.52% quarter - on - quarter and 1.86% year - on - year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the four major mines increased by about 10 million tons year - on - year, with FMG showing a significant increase. The total sales volume decreased by about 500,000 tons year - on - year, mainly due to Rio Tinto's reduced shipments [1]. - Overall, the four major mines were stable in the first three quarters. Rio Tinto may face some pressure to boost shipments in Q4. It is expected that the annual shipment volume of the four major mines will increase by 3.5 - 6 million tons year - on - year, with relatively limited overall growth [1]. 3. Summary by Company Rio Tinto - In Q3 2025, production in the Pilbara region remained high at about 84.1 million tons (100% equity), with year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter stability. Shipments were 84.3 million tons, basically flat year - on - year and up about 5.51% quarter - on - quarter, reaching the second - highest Q3 record since 2019 [6]. - The Gudai - Darri mine achieved its highest quarterly production, with an annualized production capacity of 51 million tons. The IOC mine in Canada produced about 2.348 million tons in Q3, up 11% year - on - year but down 6% quarter - on - quarter [9]. - Since July, Rio Tinto has been shipping adjusted PB fines. It maintains its 2025 shipment guidance of 323 - 338 million tons, but considering the early - year losses, the annual shipment is expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range [9]. BHP - In Q3 2025 (Q1 of FY2026), BHP's WAIO production was 62.01 million tons (equity basis), down about 2% year - on - year and 9% quarter - on - quarter; 70.25 million tons on a 100% equity basis, down about 2% year - on - year. Planned maintenance affected short - term production, but the Samarco project's output increased significantly [12]. - Sales were basically flat, with a slight year - on - year decline of about 1%. The sales of lump ore increased by 5% year - on - year. BHP maintains its FY2025 production guidance of 258 - 269 million tons (284 - 296 million tons on a 100% equity basis) [12]. FMG - In Q3 2025 (Q1 of FY2026), FMG's iron ore shipments were 49.7 million tons (including 2.1 million tons from the Iron Bridge project), up about 4% year - on - year, setting a record for the same period. Due to seasonal maintenance, shipments decreased by about 10% quarter - on - quarter. Ore processing volume was 50.8 million tons, up about 6% year - on - year [16]. - The proportion of Super Special Fines and Blend Fines is about 78%. FMG maintains its FY2026 shipment guidance of 195 - 205 million tons, with the Iron Bridge project contributing about 10 - 12 million tons [16]. Vale - In Q3 2025, Vale's iron ore production reached 94.4 million tons, up 3.8% year - on - year and 12.9% quarter - on - quarter, the highest for the same period since 2018. Sales were 86 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year and 11.2% quarter - on - quarter [18][23]. - Inventory increased by about 4.5 million tons in Q3, mainly due to more in - transit concentrate products in China. The pellet production in Q3 was 7.997 million tons, down 22.8% year - on - year [23]. - Assuming Q4 production is the same as the previous year, Vale's annual production is expected to be slightly higher than the mid - point of the guidance range of 325 - 335 million tons [24].