尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent from a supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward drive for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are mainly making cautious restocking at low prices. The potential future drivers are the update and transformation of old chemical equipment on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Information - Futures Prices: UR01 closed at 1630 yuan/ton on November 4, up 7 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1710 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1740 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): Prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 5073 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 and 05 increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1] 3. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1624 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1638 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1615 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1630 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1625 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 272271 hands [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]