五矿期货农产品早报：2025-11-05-20251105

Report Overview - This is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 5, 2025, covering market information and strategic views on multiple agricultural products [1][2] Market Information Soybean and Bean Meal - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and the expectation of a global soybean bumper harvest. Brazilian soybean premium was stable, while the cost of domestic soybean imports increased [2] - On Tuesday, the domestic bean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan/ton. Bean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. The oil mill operating rate was 51%, down from the previous period [2] - MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume this week would be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2] - As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. It was rumored that China had purchased several cargoes of US soybeans [2] Fats and Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% [6] - Reuters survey showed that palm oil inventory was expected to soar 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023 [6] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted that in November, the consumption of fats and oils would enter the peak season. With the depletion of domestic rapeseed inventory in oil mills and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory, and the recent decline in the fat and oil market price driven by palm oil, downstream consumption demand might be stimulated [6] - On Tuesday, domestic fats and oils slightly corrected. It was reported that Australian rapeseed would enter China, while palm oil was still restricted by the high recent production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6] Sugar - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day [9] - In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - According to UNICA data, in the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 34.037 million tons, an increase of 0.3% year - on - year; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year - on - year; sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year [10] Cotton - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 13535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day [13] - As of the week ending October 31, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared with the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [13] - On November 3, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.01 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [13] Eggs - The national egg price remained stable yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, with the price in Heishan remaining at 2.7 yuan/jin and that in Guantao at 2.69 yuan/jin [17] Pigs - Domestic pig prices generally continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.25 yuan to 12.04 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped 0.19 yuan to 11.67 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped 0.26 yuan to 11.63 yuan/kg [20] Strategic Views Soybean and Bean Meal - The import cost is expected to fluctuate mainly. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure. In the short term, bean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, stimulating ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [4] Fats and Oils - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. In the short term, the current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signs of production decline [8] Sugar - Recently, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound momentum to weaken and then look for opportunities to short [11] Cotton - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The new - year domestic cotton harvest is abundant, and the selling hedging pressure is high. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [14] Eggs - The continuous low replenishment and high culling of chickens have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. It is expected that the egg price will be mainly strong and consolidate in the short term, and the upper - level pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18] Pigs - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the increasing difficulty in selling white - striped pigs, the spot price increase is less than expected. It is advisable to short on rallies, but since the current futures market position is high, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21]