棕榈油：油脂驱动匮乏，关注短期支撑，豆油：美豆调整，豆油低位震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market lacks driving forces, and short - term support levels should be monitored. The soybean oil market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to the adjustment of US soybeans [1]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production hitting a seven - year high, and the growth rate of inventory exceeded export demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,616 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.55%, and (night session) was 8,654 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%. Trading volume was 556,601 lots, an increase of 92 lots, and open interest was 405,977 lots, an increase of 14,740 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,108 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02%, and (night session) was 8,116 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. Trading volume was 282,360 lots, an increase of 21,372 lots, and open interest was 480,655 lots, a decrease of 2,668 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,443 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%, and (night session) was 9,453 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.11%. Trading volume was 163,529 lots, a decrease of 176,426 lots, and open interest was 213,040 lots, a decrease of 85 lots [1]. - Spot Data: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis Data: - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was - 46 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 412 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 427 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread Data: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 827 yuan/ton, compared to 806 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 508 yuan/ton, compared to - 554 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was expected to soar 3.5% to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023. The estimated production of crude palm oil in October was 1.94 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous month, reaching the highest level for that month since October 2018. Exports in October were expected to increase 3.8% to 1.48 million tons, the second consecutive monthly increase and the highest in nearly a year [2][4]. - US Soybeans: StoneX lowered its estimate of the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.9 bushels on October 1st to 53.6 bushels, and expected the 2025 US soybean production to be 4.303 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast of 4.326 billion bushels. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield per acre to be 53.0 bushels, consistent with the October forecast, and the production estimate was 4.260 billion bushels, previously 4.261 billion bushels [4]. - Brazilian Crops: StoneX's estimates of the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests remained largely unchanged. The November estimate of the 2025/26 soybean crop was 0.1% higher than the October estimate, expected to reach 178.9 million tons, mainly due to an increase in the estimated planting area in Goiás state. Irregular rainfall caused delayed sowing in several areas, and some plots needed replanting. Long - term forecasts indicated favorable weather for the harvest [5]. - Regional Data: In Mato Grosso state, the soybean crushing profit from October 27th - 31st was 502.44 reais/ton, up from 467.42 reais/ton the previous week. In Paraná state, the 2025/26 soybean planting area had reached 79% of the expected area, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good growth condition [5]. - EU Imports: As of November 2nd, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 960,000 tons, compared to 1.19 million tons last year; soybean imports were 3.81 million tons, compared to 4.59 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.11 million tons, compared to 6.24 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.26 million tons, compared to 2.19 million tons last year [6]. - Kazakhstan Exports: In September 2025, Kazakhstan's feed meal exports reached a record high of 305,000 tons, 2.5 times that of the same period last year and 14.5 times that of September 2023 [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil was 0, and that of soybean oil was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7].